Sources: Russ Taylor, Lanshan Port, China
Joint Research Report by: Russ Taylor Global and Margules Groome Consulting
This new report, China Forest, Log & Lumber Report: Supply, Demand & Prices to 2030/2035, shows China will again be a growth market for softwoods – especially for lumber. The Chinese hardwood pulp sector will also see substantial growth with significant feedstock sourcing implications and opportunities. The report contains novel analysis not seen before and some of the findings are not what the project team was expecting! When compared to more traditional (often dated) analysis heavy on trade statistics and lacking grounded outlooks, this is a timely must-have report.
The report addresses key softwood and hardwood topics and outlooks. Some of the key trends are as follows:
China Softwood Log & Lumber Developments – Key Trends to 2035:
• China’s softwood lumber demand. This peaked in 2019 at 61.5 million m3 – a level that will not be reached again for a very long time. Demand in 2023 was already down to 42.6 million m3 because of the property market collapse and from COVID lockdowns. Lumber demand will increase slowly, but only by about 20% by 2035.
• China’s softwood lumber imports. To the surprise of the project team, lumber imports will surge over the forecast period. Peak import volume was 27.5 million m3 in 2019 but collapsed to only 18.0 million m3 in 2023. The 2019 peak could be eclipsed by about 2030 and total imports could surge by 50-75% by 2035. Increased lumber imports are required to offset supply limited declining log imports!
• Softwood log imports. Peaked in 2021 at 49.7 million m3 then plunged to 28.0 million m3 in 2023 due to reductions in four of the top five exporting countries (Ukraine and Russia log export bans; Australia short-term log import ban; slowing Central European beetle logs). New Zealand, the largest log exporter to China, will see its timber harvest start to reduce over the next decade, slowing its log exports to China. The net result is a shortage of softwood log imports in China with a total decline of more than 50% by 2035 compared to 2021.
• Softwood prices. While 2024 will be lacklustre, recovering demand, low inventories and tight log supplies will start to increase the demand for both imported logs and lumber. Prices will rise!
China Hardwood Industry Developments – Key Trends to 2035:
• China’s hardwood eucalyptus plantation estate has expanded exponentially placing it on par with Brazil in size and making it one of the largest eucalyptus growers. This expansion allows for more domestic supply than many would expect.
• How competitive is the eucalyptus industry? Our field visit findings and analysis show the Chinese hardwood sector is in a more competitive position than might have been previously thought. We also see opportunities for China to now re-align and optimise its hardwood value chain.
• The hardwood pulp industry is forecast to increase consumption from ~20 Mt in 2023 to ~31 Mt by 2035. To what extent can this incremental demand be met with domestic resources?
• Our analysis shows that there will be changes in the top ten Chinese hardwood pulp producers. Who will be the main customers for woodchip exporters or can domestic supply fill the gap?
• Pulp industry competitiveness. How competitive is China’s hardwood pulp industry? How much can they afford to pay for fibre?
The report will be extremely useful to timberland investors, softwood log and lumber exporters and hardwood woodchip and pulp industry participants. Subscribers will be better able to plan their global business and market strategies with our unique insights into China’s market outlook.
The report is priced at USD 5 000 and there are also additional pricing options:
Reach out to Rudolf van Rensburg or Brian Johnson for your copy.