Margules Groome’s quarterly harvest and haulage cost index for Australian plantation operations is based on price indexation mechanisms used by the industry, weighted by volume harvested (Figure 1). The previous index for September 2023 marked the end of the harvest and haulage cost indices’ downward trend, which was evident in the first half of 2023. The index fell slightly in the December quarter, driven by lower fuel prices.
This is the first release of Margules Groome’s biannual harvest and haulage cost index for New Zealand plantation operations (Figure 1). The methodology used is similar to Margules Groome’s approach in Australia where we have published harvest and haulage cost indices for almost a decade. The indices are the sum of different weighted economic indicators. The indicator weightings differ for harvesting and haulage.
According to this new report, China Forest, Log & Lumber Report: Supply, Demand & Prices to 2030/2035, China will again be a growth market for softwoods – especially for lumber. The Chinese hardwood pulp sector will also see substantial growth with significant feedstock sourcing implications and opportunities. The report contains novel analysis not seen before and some of the findings are not what the project team were expecting! When compared to more traditional (often dated) analysis heavy on statistics and lacking grounded outlooks, this is a timely must-have report
The China wood products market is becoming complex! A slowdown is one thing, but there are some new and evolving fibre supply dynamics that will be played out in China over the next few years and beyond that should be game changers. We are predicting what happens when China’s demand starts to normalize and/or accelerate again as well as incorporating some significant supply-side dynamics and changes. All of these factors could lead to some very favourable prices for softwood log and lumber exporters, and especially hardwood woodchips.
To provide the wood products trade with a better read and perspective on what’s next for China’s forests, market and import requirements, Russ Taylor Global (Canada) and Margules Groome (New Zealand & Australia) have teamed up to present a strategic analysis and outlook of China’s plantations, and log and lumber supply/demand/prices in: China Forest Log & Lumber Outlook: Supply, Demand & Prices to 2030/2035. We also have some expert contributors to our report.
The above chart showing Australia’s plantation area since 1999 should be familiar to most people in the forest and wood products industries. Recent media coverage and opinion following the release of the latest Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) Australian Plantation Statistics 2023 Update (August 2023) has focused on the decline in the national plantation estate from ~2.02 million ha in 2009, to ~1.72 million ha in 2022 – a 15% drop or ~300 000 ha removed.